CNN poll: Trump holds significant lead in New Hampshire Republican primary, while Haley slips to second place

By | November 16, 2023


Ancient President Donald Trump maintains a significant lead among likely voters in New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary, but former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has edged out Trump’s other rivals and is in second place, according to a new CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

Trump’s advantage in New Hampshire falls short of the majority support he is getting in nationwide primary polls: 42% say they would vote for him, followed by Haley at 20%, the former governor of New Jersey Chris Christie at 14%, the governor of Florida. Ron DeSantis at 9%, technology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%, with no other candidate holding more than 2% support. Haley’s support jumped 8 percentage points from the latest CNN/UNH poll in SeptemberRamaswamy losing 5 points and support for Trump, Christie and DeSantis remaining relatively stable.

The survey finds that Trump’s position in New Hampshire is bolstered by majority support from registered Republicans (55% support him, 17% Haley, 11% DeSantis), while undeclared voters – those who are not registered in neither party but say they are likely to do so. votes in the Republican primary – are split between Haley (25%), Trump (24%) and Christie (24%).

Undeclared voters, who can choose which party to vote for in primaries, make up about 43% of likely GOP primary voters in the new poll. That’s about the same as their share of the GOP primary electorate in 2012 — the last time there was a competitive Republican primary with a Democratic incumbent seeking re-election — but a larger share than the 36% they represented during the Republican primary. 2016 Republican primary when Trump first ran for president, according to CNN exit polls.

New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan announced Wednesday that the state’s first-in-the-nation primary would take place on January 23about a week later The Iowa Caucuses launch the GOP nomination contest.

There has been a sharp increase since September in the share of likely Republican voters in the Granite State who say their vote is locked: Just 36% of them in September said they had definitely decided. Today, 52% say their decision has been made. More than eight in ten (83%) Trump supporters say their choice is final, compared to 29% who support other candidates, including about a quarter of Haley’s (27%) and Christie’s (25%) supporters.

Christie remains the candidate New Hampshire Republican primary voters most often say they would never support (47% say they would never support him, 15 points ahead of the 32% who think that way about Trump), but this reflects a softening of opinions. opinions toward the former New Jersey governor, or at least in voters’ definition of “never.” In September, 60% of likely Republican primary voters said they would never support him.

Republican primary voters here do not accept the electability arguments made by some rivals against Trump: 57% say the former president has the best chance of winning next year’s general election, compared with 51% who ‘had said in September and clearly more than his. overall support for the primary. And nearly two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters (63%) say they would be at least satisfied with Trump as their candidate, more than the proportion who say the same about any other major candidate. Yet those who are not currently Trump supporters mostly express negative opinions about the idea of ​​a Trump nomination: while 38% would be at least satisfied, 59% would be dissatisfied or angry about it.

Overall, a majority of likely Republican primary voters (54%) would feel at least satisfied if Haley became the nominee. Haley narrowly leads Trump on this score among undeclared registered voters (50% of this group would be happy if she became the nominee, 44% would be with Trump). Overall, about half of all likely GOP primary voters (49%) would be at least happy with DeSantis at the top of the ticket, 44% with Ramaswamy and just 32% with Christie.

When asked to rate Trump on a range of attributes, likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire give him overall positive marks for his policy positions (67%), his decision-making skills (66%). ), their physical and mental fitness (63%) and ability to understand the problems faced by people like them (60%). Fewer people have a positive impression of their temperament (37%) or their honesty and integrity (46%). Yet even among those who do not support Trump for the party’s nomination, sizable minorities rate his policy positions (46%) and decision-making abilities (42%) positively. The gap between Trump’s supporters and others, however, is a chasm when it comes to perceptions of his level of honesty: while 90 percent of Trump’s own supporters say his honesty and integrity are good or very Well, only 13% of likely primary voters supporting other candidates say the same thing.

A consistent share of likely Republican primary voters cite the economy or jobs as the most important issue in deciding their primary vote (39% in September, 40% now), and an equally consistent number mention the immigration or the border (19% in September). , 18% now). But there has been a sharp increase in the number of people citing a foreign policy issue as determining their primary vote, from 6% in September to 15% today.

Half of New Hampshire’s likely Republican primary voters (50%) trust Trump, who is the top Republican presidential candidate, to handle the election. war between Israel and Hamas, while 20% say they trust Haley the most. Trump holds a broader advantage as the most confident person on the economy (58% say he can handle the situation best, compared with 11% for Haley and 10% for Christie), but a significantly larger advantage weak in terms of handling abortion (37% for Trump versus 29%). for Haley).

A majority of the potential GOP primary electorate supports ban refugees from entering Gaza to enter the United States (61% support it, 25% oppose it). About half of likely Republican primary voters (51%) favor ending all U.S. military support for Ukraine, but that’s down from September, when 59% supported the proposal.

Likely Republican primary voters who followed news of the last Republican presidential debate largely say Haley (37%) and Ramaswamy (26%) did the best job. Another 10% say DeSantis had the best performance and 9% name Christie. Among the full sample of likely Republican primary voters, 45% say they wish Trump had participated in the Miami showdown, and 47% say they would not have preferred him to do so. The most likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire (54%) say they are at least somewhat interested in continuing the GOP primary debates, with interest more concentrated among those who don’t support Trump (65%) than among its voters (38%).

Even in the state where the nation’s first primary was held, relatively few voters participated in retail politics. About 1 in 6 Republican primary voters say they have attended an event for a candidate in the past year (18%), and fewer say they have donated to a campaign (12%), met with a candidate (12%). or posted a bumper sticker (8%) or road sign (4%).

The CNN New Hampshire Poll was conducted online Nov. 10-14 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Results among the full sample of 1,946 New Hampshire adults drawn from a probability panel have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. Likely Republican primary voters were identified through survey questions about their intention to vote. Results among 841 likely Republican primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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